Thursday, September 4, 2008

Caucasian Oil Corridor - Lucid comments

What in tarnation is the EU doing?

Preface: Try as I may, I have not been able to understand why the EU elites are acting as if they do not know that this entire mess in Georgia is USA/Israel backed. They know this is all about oil pipelines: and we know they know. Merkel are Sarkozy are doing the best imitation of Texas parlour house whores since Clint Eastwood's 'Unforgiven'. Figuring out what is going on in their frenzied capitalist brains is difficult though.

I came across a very refreshing blog that explains the oil/pipeline dynamics of Russia and Europe and how a Federation might benefit all. It is rather lucid and so I thought I might share it here.


Location: Slovakia, Bratislava

PostPosted: Fri Aug 29, 2008 1:15 pm
Well, OK then. I respect anybody's opinion, if it's an opinion of a majority.
But history proves that any gathering that's not firm enough can, and 99% will, be broken down by destroying the weakest link in the chain by enemy's bribery.
But me myself, I'll always remain federalist. We had formed a federation with our Czech brothers with no fear, and had not a single problem with them, it's just that our ways parted at last. I see no reason for any nation entering EU to be afraid of too much integration, 'cause if it goes wrong, any MS can just leave any time it wants.

Why to form a federation when the things go as well according to the current rules? Well, they don't go that well in the field of energy policy, which seems to be the most important one during this decade.

EU is the weakest energy player in the world. The fact, that we're no major oil exporter, cannot be helped and need not be cried about, if we exert sufficient political force our a part of the world that has the oil. US conquered half of the Middle East (besides the fact that it still has many gigabarels of oil untouched in its own soil - quite a mercantilistic approach for a biggest freed-trade speaker, aren't you a bit schizophrenic, yanks?).

Russia has a lot of supplies.

And China silently conquered half of the strategic energy enterprises in Africa during last 5-8 years. Maybe you've missed it, because it never was on front-pages of newspaper - media moguls simply could not write about China fighting for oil, 'cause it'd cast a different light on these super-duper-righteous wars "for democracy" the yanks were commiting. But if google up a list of oil-rich African states and google the particular nations with the word 'China', you'll get many records of african bank, refinery & infrastructures acquisitions and loans by China, all since the yanks invaded first ME country.

EU has 4 options.

A: Middle-East. Al-Maliki is eager to let us in, so are his neighbours. Iran wants to switch from petro-dollar to petro-euro for a long time, but knows too well it's too dangerous and EU is too afraid to land a hand. Anyway Nabucco pipeline must go through Turkey. Which gives Turkey certain power over EU. To avoid this, they needed to by bound. The only available way to bind them was to have them submit to EU laws. But the Turks know their position very well, so they are willing to cooperate only if they get a voice. And that can be too dangerous and was rejected. So Nabucco is lost.
B: The remntants of Africa, specifically Qaddafi. This still can prove fruitful, as the majority of the world already changed its rethorics towards Qaddafi during last year (as he's got something that everybody wants), but Qaddafi keeps rejecting agreements outside of his proposed African Union (what a shame for quarelling europeans, who still aren't able to do such a thing).
C: Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan. A bit unstable, because it's too close to Russia and a bit inconvenient, if the EU decided to go more independent of US, because it's it practically in US hands.
D: Russia. European dependency on Russia is alarming, and gas dependency is supposed to double in a decade. Parts of the eastern Europe, like mine, are 100% dependent. Russia knows this and will use this to its advatage. It already did, in Ukraine & Czech republic, pausing its supply. And for several last years, it keeps building a pipeline to China, which is desperate to get it done, and promises to give anything for it. Once the last section of that pipeline is done, Russians can stop the european supply with almost no fear of financial loss.

Now this is the point why I mentioned the need of some federational approach in energy policy. Nowadays Russia rules the Europe through bilateral energy agreements: Germany has its undersea pipeline project, Sarky cares only about dealing with his closest neighbours (hence Mediterranean union), you folks around North sea can get something there (although not much) and us easterers can become short-sighted and form bilateral agreement with Russia anytime soon too.

As far as Russia has many bilateral agreements instead of a common one on european level, obligatory for each MS, it can exert its power - charging unfriendly nation more and a friendly one less. But as soon as federative approach arises, we can better bent Russians to sign an agreement which will try to avoid the possibility to blackmail us.

But this must be done before China is connected.

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